The Afghan War Quagmire

by: Patrick Kenney

Writer, All About Business

How does the U.S. military define victory in Afghanistan?  Moreover, can the war in Afghanistan be won at all?  If the war can be won, what exactly would we have accomplished?  Answering these questions are crucial because they should help to define whether U.S. forces have a clearly defined reason, rationale, and most importantly mission for fighting in Afghanistan in the first place.

One argument for remaining in Afghanistan is the idea that leaving would result in a multitude of consequences for the United States in terms of international standing.  Senator John McCain, for example, highlights how if the U.S. leaves he would be “concerned (about) the perception of our friends and our enemies as well as the people of Afghanistan, as to the depth of our commitment.”   As such, McCain is highlighting how the U.S. cannot back down because the war itself is larger than U.S. self-interests.  Consequently, he does make a good point, particularly about the people of Afghanistan wanting to count on us when we make a commitment to improve their quality of life.  In other words, can our allies count on the U.S. to live up to what it says it will do in terms of fighting on behalf of them?  If no, then that would negatively impact our standing with them.

In addition to gaining and upholding trust among allies, the consequences may also be bad in terms of the message it sends to U.S. enemies if we leave Afghanistan.  In particular, the argument is that the U.S. should not leave because of the message it would send to our enemies that they can wear us down and shake our will with their acts of violence.  In fact, when President Obama set an exit date from Afghanistan, according to Senator McCain, that “hurt, hurt our friends, and emboldened our enemies.  If you tell the enemy you’re leaving on a date certain, unequivocally, then that enemy will wait until you leave.”  Senator Graham agrees and goes further by saying a deadline “could cripple the war effort by creating ‘confusion and uncertainty.’”  Yet, neither Senators McCain nor Graham have been able to clarify the objective of the current U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, which is important to know in terms of determining what the end-state is.

While Senator McCain believes withdrawing from Afghanistan has international repercussions in terms of others questioning our will to fight, he fails to answer what exactly the current war in Afghanistan should accomplish or even what success entails.  Not defining what exactly victory is for the U.S. in the Afghan war is troubling for the U.S. in terms of not providing Americans with a sense of a clearly defined mission or purpose for why U.S. soldiers should fight in Afghanistan at all.   Ted Sorenson, an advisor to John F. Kennedy, highlights how the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan of “Repeatedly, changing commanders and initiating open-ended increases in U.S. forces, without a clearly definable goal, does not help.”

Since U.S. forces are already over in Afghanistan, it becomes essential to define the conditions that must be met before these forces can declare victory.  Perhaps, the lack of objective with this war may mean U.S. forces stay there indefinitely so that’s why individuals like Senator McCain have yet to define what victory is.  On the other hand, the Afghan war may not have a military solution.  An expert on Afghanistan Jere Van Dyk highlights how U.S. forces may not be able to win the Afghan war militarily since it “They (the Taliban) will never give in.  Pakistan is using the Taliban to further their own geopolitical goal, which is to prevent Pashtun nationalism from rising again.”  Clearly, therefore, the reason why U.S. forces are in Afghanistan makes no sense from a military standpoint since it appears to involve political dynamics that can only be resolved between the Afghans and Pakistanis as well as with the various ethnic groups within Afghanistan.

Since the solution to the Afghan conflict cannot come militarily, then the question becomes, why should U.S. forces be over there in the first place?  Now, an immediate withdrawal cannot happen due to the logistics of moving equipment and personnel, but a withdrawal timetable should certainly happen.  A timetable is necessary because the war is not winnable militarily by U.S. forces.  Rather, a political settlement is the solution to the Afghanistan conflict and the dynamics of that have to be worked out with the Afghanis and possibly their regional neighbors such as Pakistan.   The U.S. military has no control over the political dynamics of the region.

Patrick Kenney is an AAB writer interested in environmental issues and causes.  Patrick received his bachelors in environmental science and public policy from William and Mary.  Patrick is currently working toward an MPA, Masters of Public Administration, with a concentration in environmental science and policy.  Patrick hopes to be able to work for a government agency or a non-profit promoting energy or environmental issues.

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