What does former Egyptian President Mubarak’s ouster mean for the U.S.?

BY: Patrick Kenney, AAB writer

This past Friday’s resignation of former Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak was celebrated in the streets of Cairo and throughout Egypt.
The protestors got their wishes and desires honored when President
Mubarak agreed to step down from power. However, with the overthrow
of President Mubarak, the next phase is certainly going to be
unpredictable.

It will be unpredictable for Egypt as they chart a new future, for the
region, and for the U.S. as they must adjust their foreign policy to
deal with the new reality emerging in Egypt.

While it is clear that Mubarak’s overthrow means for the U.S. in the
short-term is unknown, in the long-term, there are predictions being
made by pundits and experts of the region as to the type of government
that is going to replace Mubarak. Nevertheless, one thing is clear,
the overthrow of President Mubarak has brought about uncertainty and
doubt as to what the world is likely to see in the days, weeks,
months, and years ahead for Egypt’s future.

One school of thought is that the overthrow of former President
Mubarak “would have severe consequences for the United States, Israel,
and the Western world” if an Islamic fundamentalist regime emerges.
If an Islamic fundamentalist regime emerges, that would be problematic
for the U.S. and Israel in particular because of the possibility they
would control a strategically important economic area—the Suez Canal,
which is where international trade passes through.

However, when looking at the demographic make-up of the protestors, it
is clear that the vast majority are not Islamic fundamentalists. As
news accounts indicate, “The Muslim Brotherhood is not leading the
upsurge that is bringing down Hosni Mubarak: It is made up of young
people, of women and men who have rejected dictatorship.”

As the news reports seem to indicate, social unrest eventually happens
in dictatorships. In dictatorships, the population is oppressed and,
at some point, they decide enough is enough where they can no longer
take being kept down. Consequently, when the Egyptian people
overthrew Mubarak, they did likely because they did not like
oppression and the lack of opportunity for growth, prosperity, and
ingenuity.

Thus, the events that have transpired in Egypt over the past few weeks
result from people who live under dictatorships demanding a better
life for themselves and future generations. Consequently, it does not
necessarily follow that with the overthrow of President Mubarak, the
U.S. and Israel should not expect an unfriendly Islamist regime, which
would result in fewer freedoms than they had under President Mubarak.

The lessons that can be learned from the Egypt experience, therefore,
are similar to what can be found in any dictatorship: Eventually, the
people get fed up with oppression and being kept down. Dictatorships,
in other words, are not made of steel and, in fact, are weak behind
the “power” that dictators like to project both within their country
and to the world in general.

What happens next for Egypt is entirely unknown. What the future
Egyptian government is to look like cannot be decided by the U.S. or
Israel, but rather by the Egyptian people through a fair, free, and
open election process. Although what the future holds is certainly
uncertain, it is clear based on the protests over the last few weeks
that the Egyptian citizens do not want to return to another
dictatorship or worse yet an Islamist regime that limits their freedom
even more.

Patrick Kenney is a recent graduate of William and Mary with a double
major in environment science and public policy and is now working
toward his masters in public administration. Patrick has been active
in SEAC (Student Environmental Action Coalition) promoting
sustainability on campus. Patrick is passionate about promoting a
clean environment and hopes to work in a non-profit organization
promoting environmental causes such as increasing the U.S.’s share of
biomass energy resources.